Election 2024 Postmortem
Bad news for the Democrats, and where they should go from here
With Thanksgiving coming up on Thursday, this will be my only post for the week. I’ll be back a week from now. In the meantime, I hope my subscribers enjoy the holiday!
Since Election Day, I’ve been writing exclusively about the incoming Trump administration, with a lot of emphasis on its Cabinet picks. But what about the Democrats? My take on what went wrong for them this year isn’t hugely different than what you’ll find in the writings of such centrist liberals as Matthew Yglesias, Ezra Klein, Ruy Teixeira, and Josh Barro, though I think my emphases are distinct enough to justify writing a post on my views, rather than just listing a series of links to the writings of others.
The Democrats, in my view, find themselves at a crossroads. The slow-rolling migration of working-class voters rightward that began half a century ago accelerated in the 2024 election, culminating in the reality the New York Times (accurately) describes in the following terms: “Donald Trump’s populist pitch has helped swing almost every traditional Democratic constituency to the right.” (That Times piece contains data on which I rely for much of what follows.) Will the many Hispanic, Asian, younger, and black male-voters who cast Republican ballots for the first time this year become reliable members of the GOP’s electoral coalition going forward? Or will Democrats begin wooing them back in 2026 and 2028? An awful lot depends on the answer to those questions.
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