Germany’s Deepening Dilemma

The country is riven by ideological divisions on two dimensions, plus deep demographic cleavages

Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and his party's main candidate for Chancellor addresses supporters next to CDU Vice-Secretary General Christina Stumpp (R) after the first exit polls in the German general elections were announced on TV during the electoral evening in Berlin on February 23, 2025. (Photo by INA FASSBENDER/AFP via Getty Images)

In Germany’s national election on Sunday, trends that had been underway over the last several vote cycles continued to expand and deepen. The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in a very solid second place, fewer than eight points behind the plurality winner, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The CDU will be working to form a “grand coalition” with the third-place center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).

But that way of describing the outcome downplays and somewhat misstates the dangers of this moment. The AfD’s rise is one manifestation of these dangers. But the underlying problem is the collapse in the pro-system parties of the center and simultaneous rise of anti-system parties of the far right and far left. It’s possible that one of those extreme parties will manage to prevail outright in a future vote. But the more likely outcome, if present trends continue, is a party system so fractured that forming a coherent and stable government becomes nearly impossible. From out of the resulting chaos, it could become impossible to prevent one of the radical anti-system parties, including the AfD, from joining a governing coalition.

AfD Rising