The Generic Democrat Is Winning

Kamala Harris has pulled into the lead by being anything and everything she needs to be

Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally with Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at the Liacouras Center at Temple University on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

I want to begin by stipulating something that should be obvious to everyone who reads my work or listens to me on podcasts: I want Donald Trump to lose, and therefore I want the Democrats to win, in November.

For that reason, I’m now much happier, in political terms, than I was a month ago, when it looked like Trump was on track to win the presidency—possibly, and for the first time, with a plurality or even a majority of the popular vote. That no longer seems likely. Indeed, the entire dynamic of the race has changed since Joe Biden, on July 21, announced his withdrawal from the contest and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, to be the Democratic nominee.

I know a lot of Democrats who have not merely become much happier over the past month but who are swooning, thrilled, ecstatic about voting for Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. I assume it’s this 180-degree shift in mood or “vibe” that explains the dramatic change we’ve seen in the polls since the third week of July.

But why exactly has it happened? The more I think about it, the stranger it seems to me. Now, I know many Democrats will read the previous sentence, roll their eyes in exasperation, and say to themselves (or in a comment on this post) that this statement is a confession of the uselessness of punditry. You just don’t get it! And if you don’t get it, then just shut up! But here’s the thing: My struggle to grasp why things are unfolding in a particular way is not an occasion to pipe down. It’s an opportunity to seek the understanding I currently lack. That deeper analytical dive isn’t going to make it more likely that Trump wins and Harris loses. I’m merely looking for a theory that can explain why Biden was on track to lose while Harris is now (narrowly) on track to win.

I think I’ve come up with such a theory. But in order to explain it, first I need to set the stage.