What Do You Really Know?
Trust, risk, and skepticism in a free society
Thanks to Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s appearance on Joe Rogan’s extremely popular podcast last week, very-online Americans are once again fighting with each other about vaccines.
That’s because RFK, who’s running against President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, is a full-spectrum conspiracist about many things, including vaccines; because Rogan evolved in the direction of vaccine skepticism during and following the COVID-19 pandemic; and because several prominent, absurdly wealthy Silicon Valley tech bros are fond of boosting RFK’s campaign for reasons that couldn’t possibly have anything to do with their stated support for Ron DeSantis’ presidential aspirations.
The details aren’t important. Suffice it to say that on the podcast Rogan and RFK talked about the supposed dangers of vaccines and expressed sharp disapproval of pharmaceutical companies, some scientists and public-health professionals pushed back against Rogan on Twitter, and then Rogan challenged one of them to come onto his podcast to debate vaccine efficacy and safety. This then inspired thousands of indignant replies on every side of the issue.
A Matter of Trust
I’m not really interested in debating the substance of the issue. I’m fully vaccinated, so is my wife, and so are my kids. That includes several rounds of Pfizer’s mRNA COVID vaccine. But I’m not anything close to being a medical doctor or an expert on immunology or epidemiology. I’m not even an especially informed amateur observer of issues in public health. What I am is a broadly well-educated writer and citizen who trusts doctors, public-health professionals, government agencies, and the media’s myriad mechanisms of publicity to provide me with accurate information about the world. I trust that since tens of millions of Americans (and hundreds of millions more all over the world) have taken these vaccines, I would have heard about it in the form of a blockbuster news story if they actually did more harm than good.
But note: I don’t know that vaccines are safe in the same way that I know it’s a cloudy day in the Philadelphia suburbs, where I live and am writing this post. And this is true about an enormous number of things. Anytime anyone says “I know X” about a matter that goes beyond direct personal experience—I can see the clouds outside my window with my own eyes—it implicitly involves an act of trust: “I know X because Y says X, and I trust that Y knows what s/he is talking about and wouldn't deceive me.”
Do you distrust the pronouncements of Anthony Fauci? Fine. But why would that lead you to trust RFK or Joe Rogan more? Just because they’re not employed by the government?
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