It's unfortunately too easy to see how the lessons learned by the GOP from 2022 results will not be - don't BE crazy, but instead - don't look like you're crazy. Our grading curve for what constitutes passing candidates has been so skewed that if you're not frothing at the mouth claiming election fraud and space lasers at every rally (oh wait, she was reelected), you appear downright normal. DeSantis is downright cruel to immigrants and his use of govt to punish his enemies is really leaning authoritarian, but the GOP is giving him an A+.
There is also the fear that Dems will misread their successes and see their wins as voters wanting more progressive candidates (you already hear this on left leaning podcasts). This will, of course, give the voters all the excuse they need to vote for the seemingly equally or slightly less crazy Republican. If your choice is between two extremes, pick the one in your camp (see, e.g. Wisconsin).
We can still hope and fight for sanity and moderation to be the norm, even though the last several years has done its best to disabuse is of that hope.
Ordinarily, I go into extended, somewhat idiosyncratic personal analyses of Linker's pieces. But here, I will likely restate what others have observed. First, the lackluster, below-expected majority the Republicans obtained in the House were in my view mainly due to two factors. The first of those was the fact that this was the first election cycle in the decennium after the 2020 U.S. Census and, regardless of the political atmosphere America happens to be in at such a time, population shifts among the states are going to give redistricting the nature of what someone called a "blood sport." The 2021-22 redrawing of maps did not fail to live up to that moniker, particularly in Republican states. One example of that was in Tennessee (next door to me), where the legislature dismantled the Nashville-based 5th District, literally carving it into slices to attach them to adjacent suburban and rural territory. This means that the city, a strongly blue (going back to Dixiecrat days) oasis in a sea of MAGA red, will be represented by a Republican in the U.S. House for the first time since Reconstruction--Reconstruction, as in the 19th century! Nonetheless, in much of purple America, it was not enough to dislodge erstwhile vulnerable Dems, so the GOP did not get the padding it desired, and Kevin McCarthy may become the first victim of that. The second? Something that might be termed "conservative flight" (a nod to the 1960s and 1970s "white flight" phenomenon) from cosmopolitan, "big government" states where Democrats are entrenched, namely New York and California, to economically laissez-faire, religiously fundamentalist states such as Florida and Texas. Both states gained several districts and the new seats went all (or almost all) Republican, as was predicted. About the only exception to that narrative was the surprising performance of the GOP in New York state (where Lee Zeldin nearly knocked off Kathy Hochul in Albany), but as I see things, the few seats the party picked up are very much purple and can go either way again in 2024; as we know, incumbency does not hold the power it did when most of us were growing up--one-term Reps are becoming more and more common as time goes on. As for Kari Lake, her intransigence has one overriding motive: getting the VP nod from Trump if he snatches up the 2024 primaries, which will likely happen if Ron DeSantis decides to sit it out and stay in Tallahassee. It is, of course, not necessary that she actually accomplishes her aim of getting her loss to Katie Hobbs overturned; putting up a fight will suffice for the base, to show that she has "gotten with the program." Does anybody have different views on any of that?
Yes there is reason to be SOMEWHAT optimistic, and I'll add another "good news" data point and that is the brewing political strife (I hope it turns into a civil war) in the GOP. Currently this strife centers on the elections of the House Speaker and the RNC chair, and the probable GOP prep primary, will no doubt continue to fester these divides.
But, let's not forget the new driver of reactionary policies that so-called conservatives seek to imposed on 21st century America: The Supreme Court. It does not appear they are reading the tea-leaves and will pull back on their radical agenda. An agenda based on "established traditions" that must reach back to the 1600's before SCOTUS considers them valid.
Also, the fundamental conditions have not changed, which makes me feel that any valid reasons to feel optimistic is just a momentary reprieve. The classic battle between progressive change and conservative traditions is accelerating in the early days of the digital age and has created a Future Shock affect that is truly dividing us and preventing us from sharing a common national narrative.
Count me as equally apprehensive if stunts like the ones Abbott and DeSantis pulled continue to be cheered by so-called "Christians," and if the spineless amoeba known as Kevin McCarthy acquiesces to the worst impulses of the Lunatic Wing of the GOP House Caucus (which, given their outsized influence in right wing politics, feels like an inevitability).
That said, you've hit raised a number of things for us to feel good about at the close of the year, politically speaking, and it does feel like the "national temperature" has come down a bit, at least anecdotally speaking.
Fortunately, new Right vaccine skepticism may be self-limiting: https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2022/11/more-republicans-died-democrats-after-covid-19-vaccines-came-out/380279/
It's unfortunately too easy to see how the lessons learned by the GOP from 2022 results will not be - don't BE crazy, but instead - don't look like you're crazy. Our grading curve for what constitutes passing candidates has been so skewed that if you're not frothing at the mouth claiming election fraud and space lasers at every rally (oh wait, she was reelected), you appear downright normal. DeSantis is downright cruel to immigrants and his use of govt to punish his enemies is really leaning authoritarian, but the GOP is giving him an A+.
There is also the fear that Dems will misread their successes and see their wins as voters wanting more progressive candidates (you already hear this on left leaning podcasts). This will, of course, give the voters all the excuse they need to vote for the seemingly equally or slightly less crazy Republican. If your choice is between two extremes, pick the one in your camp (see, e.g. Wisconsin).
We can still hope and fight for sanity and moderation to be the norm, even though the last several years has done its best to disabuse is of that hope.
Enjoy the family and the getaway!
I agree with this post completely. It expresses my mood to a T: hopeful, but not optimistic.
Ordinarily, I go into extended, somewhat idiosyncratic personal analyses of Linker's pieces. But here, I will likely restate what others have observed. First, the lackluster, below-expected majority the Republicans obtained in the House were in my view mainly due to two factors. The first of those was the fact that this was the first election cycle in the decennium after the 2020 U.S. Census and, regardless of the political atmosphere America happens to be in at such a time, population shifts among the states are going to give redistricting the nature of what someone called a "blood sport." The 2021-22 redrawing of maps did not fail to live up to that moniker, particularly in Republican states. One example of that was in Tennessee (next door to me), where the legislature dismantled the Nashville-based 5th District, literally carving it into slices to attach them to adjacent suburban and rural territory. This means that the city, a strongly blue (going back to Dixiecrat days) oasis in a sea of MAGA red, will be represented by a Republican in the U.S. House for the first time since Reconstruction--Reconstruction, as in the 19th century! Nonetheless, in much of purple America, it was not enough to dislodge erstwhile vulnerable Dems, so the GOP did not get the padding it desired, and Kevin McCarthy may become the first victim of that. The second? Something that might be termed "conservative flight" (a nod to the 1960s and 1970s "white flight" phenomenon) from cosmopolitan, "big government" states where Democrats are entrenched, namely New York and California, to economically laissez-faire, religiously fundamentalist states such as Florida and Texas. Both states gained several districts and the new seats went all (or almost all) Republican, as was predicted. About the only exception to that narrative was the surprising performance of the GOP in New York state (where Lee Zeldin nearly knocked off Kathy Hochul in Albany), but as I see things, the few seats the party picked up are very much purple and can go either way again in 2024; as we know, incumbency does not hold the power it did when most of us were growing up--one-term Reps are becoming more and more common as time goes on. As for Kari Lake, her intransigence has one overriding motive: getting the VP nod from Trump if he snatches up the 2024 primaries, which will likely happen if Ron DeSantis decides to sit it out and stay in Tallahassee. It is, of course, not necessary that she actually accomplishes her aim of getting her loss to Katie Hobbs overturned; putting up a fight will suffice for the base, to show that she has "gotten with the program." Does anybody have different views on any of that?
And, we aren’t being governed from the fringes now?
Yes there is reason to be SOMEWHAT optimistic, and I'll add another "good news" data point and that is the brewing political strife (I hope it turns into a civil war) in the GOP. Currently this strife centers on the elections of the House Speaker and the RNC chair, and the probable GOP prep primary, will no doubt continue to fester these divides.
But, let's not forget the new driver of reactionary policies that so-called conservatives seek to imposed on 21st century America: The Supreme Court. It does not appear they are reading the tea-leaves and will pull back on their radical agenda. An agenda based on "established traditions" that must reach back to the 1600's before SCOTUS considers them valid.
Also, the fundamental conditions have not changed, which makes me feel that any valid reasons to feel optimistic is just a momentary reprieve. The classic battle between progressive change and conservative traditions is accelerating in the early days of the digital age and has created a Future Shock affect that is truly dividing us and preventing us from sharing a common national narrative.
Happy New Year...(?)
Count me as equally apprehensive if stunts like the ones Abbott and DeSantis pulled continue to be cheered by so-called "Christians," and if the spineless amoeba known as Kevin McCarthy acquiesces to the worst impulses of the Lunatic Wing of the GOP House Caucus (which, given their outsized influence in right wing politics, feels like an inevitability).
That said, you've hit raised a number of things for us to feel good about at the close of the year, politically speaking, and it does feel like the "national temperature" has come down a bit, at least anecdotally speaking.