While you're right that no other democracy has seen anything like January 6th, I wonder how significant that actually is given how few right-wing populist governments have lost power via the electoral process.
Marine Le Pen hasn't won the French presidency yet, and the AfD is nowhere near power in Germany. Viktor Orban's Fidesz party just won reelection in Hungary with a strong mandate. Poland's Law and Justice party won reelection in 2019 with a reduced mandate. Boris Johnson just won a no-confidence vote, and while I can't imagine violence in Britain if he had lost it, or if he loses the next election, the fact is the scenario hasn't transpired yet. Nor has it transpired in Brazil, where I don't think anyone can be as certain things will unfold entirely peacefully. Bolsonaro is polling well behind Lula, so if the ultimate result matches current polls we'll see both what he does and what his supporters do.
Off the top of my head, the only example I can think of where a right-wing populist government lost an election recently was in Israel, and it's true that Netanyahu didn't try to stay in power through something like January 6th. Maybe that's because January 6th was a terrible idea that shouldn't have and didn't work and might have backfired in Israel? Netanyahu, after all, faces more determined right-wing rivals than Trump does (one of them is now Prime Minister). Anyway, I wouldn't cite Israel as an exemplar of peaceful transfers of power given how Netanyahu came to power in the first place.
Turkey is also a special case given its history of military coups and the fact that the army has historically conceived of themselves as the guardians of secularism and the constitution. That aspect of Turkey's history complicates a narrative about populism (and political Islam) as a threat to democracy there -- they *are* threats, but they came to power in the context of democratization rather than democratic decay.
Anyway -- I agree that January 6th was a horrible and distinctive chapter in American history. I just think it's too soon to say that it proves either Trump or America is distinctive among contemporary right-wing populisms.
I would respond by saying the post is obviously written on June 10, 2022. It reflects the reality at the moment. But aside from that, I also think it's important to highlight something distinctive, and distinctively bad, about the American situation. Orban may be putting a thumb on the scale in Hungary, but he actually wins elections that are at least partially free and fair. He can point to strong support outside the capital. I grant that Turkey is a special case and possibly shouldn't have been included on my list. But in the other countries, the right-wing populists have been playing by the democratic rules. The fact that some future right-wing populist might do something as bad as Trump doesn't diminish the importance of pointing out that Trump has already done it, and that this makes him, and the U.S., distinctive (up to now).
I would also include Egypt on the list of ostensible democracies that were overthrown by a military coup led by the then-wannabe dictator Sisi. When he finally faced election in 2014, nobody bothered to vote (and I know this because I lived there at the time), yet Sisi was declared the winner.
Some on Twitter have objected to the inclusion of Turkey in my list of countries that haven't experienced an event as bad as January 6, 2021. I view this as a spectrum. Germany has a far-right party that now regularly wins over 10 percent of the vote. France has seen the National Rally party make it into the final round of the presidential vote in the last two elections, with its margin increasing over time. Hungary's antiliberal president has been re-elected several times while increasing his party's control over the media. And so forth. At the furthest extreme (so far), Vladimir Putin rules Russia as an autocrat, and an even more dictatorial one since his invasion of Ukraine. Turkey is somewhere between Hungary and Russia. I thought including it would sharpen the argument I was making. If you strongly disagree and can back it up, I'm happy to concede the point, which I don't think weakens the overall claim about coups being distinctively bad, and one nearly happening here being really bad for the United States.
Excellent. I have thought a lot about what would have happened if Trump had succeeded and then refused to leave the Presidency, and it is hard to imagine our country surviving as a single representative democracy.
While you're right that no other democracy has seen anything like January 6th, I wonder how significant that actually is given how few right-wing populist governments have lost power via the electoral process.
Marine Le Pen hasn't won the French presidency yet, and the AfD is nowhere near power in Germany. Viktor Orban's Fidesz party just won reelection in Hungary with a strong mandate. Poland's Law and Justice party won reelection in 2019 with a reduced mandate. Boris Johnson just won a no-confidence vote, and while I can't imagine violence in Britain if he had lost it, or if he loses the next election, the fact is the scenario hasn't transpired yet. Nor has it transpired in Brazil, where I don't think anyone can be as certain things will unfold entirely peacefully. Bolsonaro is polling well behind Lula, so if the ultimate result matches current polls we'll see both what he does and what his supporters do.
Off the top of my head, the only example I can think of where a right-wing populist government lost an election recently was in Israel, and it's true that Netanyahu didn't try to stay in power through something like January 6th. Maybe that's because January 6th was a terrible idea that shouldn't have and didn't work and might have backfired in Israel? Netanyahu, after all, faces more determined right-wing rivals than Trump does (one of them is now Prime Minister). Anyway, I wouldn't cite Israel as an exemplar of peaceful transfers of power given how Netanyahu came to power in the first place.
Turkey is also a special case given its history of military coups and the fact that the army has historically conceived of themselves as the guardians of secularism and the constitution. That aspect of Turkey's history complicates a narrative about populism (and political Islam) as a threat to democracy there -- they *are* threats, but they came to power in the context of democratization rather than democratic decay.
Anyway -- I agree that January 6th was a horrible and distinctive chapter in American history. I just think it's too soon to say that it proves either Trump or America is distinctive among contemporary right-wing populisms.
I would respond by saying the post is obviously written on June 10, 2022. It reflects the reality at the moment. But aside from that, I also think it's important to highlight something distinctive, and distinctively bad, about the American situation. Orban may be putting a thumb on the scale in Hungary, but he actually wins elections that are at least partially free and fair. He can point to strong support outside the capital. I grant that Turkey is a special case and possibly shouldn't have been included on my list. But in the other countries, the right-wing populists have been playing by the democratic rules. The fact that some future right-wing populist might do something as bad as Trump doesn't diminish the importance of pointing out that Trump has already done it, and that this makes him, and the U.S., distinctive (up to now).
I would also include Egypt on the list of ostensible democracies that were overthrown by a military coup led by the then-wannabe dictator Sisi. When he finally faced election in 2014, nobody bothered to vote (and I know this because I lived there at the time), yet Sisi was declared the winner.
Some on Twitter have objected to the inclusion of Turkey in my list of countries that haven't experienced an event as bad as January 6, 2021. I view this as a spectrum. Germany has a far-right party that now regularly wins over 10 percent of the vote. France has seen the National Rally party make it into the final round of the presidential vote in the last two elections, with its margin increasing over time. Hungary's antiliberal president has been re-elected several times while increasing his party's control over the media. And so forth. At the furthest extreme (so far), Vladimir Putin rules Russia as an autocrat, and an even more dictatorial one since his invasion of Ukraine. Turkey is somewhere between Hungary and Russia. I thought including it would sharpen the argument I was making. If you strongly disagree and can back it up, I'm happy to concede the point, which I don't think weakens the overall claim about coups being distinctively bad, and one nearly happening here being really bad for the United States.
Excellent. I have thought a lot about what would have happened if Trump had succeeded and then refused to leave the Presidency, and it is hard to imagine our country surviving as a single representative democracy.