5 Comments

I think your final scenario is what will happen, that it will be a large red wave; but I don’t think it’s that big of a deal, anyone that has high school aged kids living in their house during Covid school closures, it doesn’t matter if they were usually Republicans or Democrats, they are looking to say to anyone in power, don’t ever do that again, inflation is not all Dems fault but they’ll get the blame, and of course crime,it’s not the end of democracy but hopefully it’s a wake up to democrats to abandoned the left wing of their party

Expand full comment

I don't think the Democrats can abandon the left wing of their party, much like the GOP cannot abandon the right of their party.

Where the Democrats could win would be to become old-style new dealers, willing to take on Wall Street. But that won't happen since a lot of Wall Street has the Democrats in their pocket.

What the Democrats actually need to do is find the person who came up with cashless bail and fire them publicly in a ritual similar to that of Max von Sydow in The Exorcist.

Expand full comment

We will see how it goes tomorrow. But, the Democrats are as cynical as the Republicans. Many of the candidates who may be elected tomorrow would not have gotten to the fall had the Democratic money people not boosted them in the Republican Primary. If the Democrats really thought those candidates were dangers to our democracy, why would they play that game in Republican voting areas?

Expand full comment

One of the reasons I’m not that worried is because if you look at the Hispanic vote as an example, they are breaking Republican and so the question is why? I think it’s crime and inflation and the party in power pays for those things, it will have negative consequences because Trump will read more into than is really there, but it won’t be true, voters are just moving there to punish the party in power

Expand full comment

I agree, to a point. That's true for any other Republican. If Biden is the Democratic nominee, all Trump has to do is run ads in Spanish reminding the voters that when he was president pre-pandemic those voters had jobs and there was no inflation. Because he was president... and while not proof of cause, is close enough for voters.

Also, if the Republican Party is as cynical as many on here would like to believe, they could kneecap aid to Ukraine, and a President Trump could affect a rapprochement with Russia. As soon as diesel and gas prices drop, so will inflation. It's not good to reward Putin, but how many of the lower information voters care one whit about Ukraine and Russia? The vast majority who do live in five zip codes and get to appear nightly on television or the columns of the NYT or Washington Post.

Expand full comment