The coming shutdown will be The Big One, I think. Biden can't afford to back down, and even if he wanted to, there is no deal he can offer that Johnson could accept without losing his job. On the other side, capitulation would be catastrophic for MAGA Republicans. The most likely resolution is the desertion of the required handful of moderate (or rather, moderately extreme) Republicans, but that will only happen after the catastrophic effects of the shutdown have already become reality.
Will it make any difference that the MAGA folk rely on the statements of Sidney Powell and others who have now declared that they were spouting lies? I would also like to revisit the down ballot election results which should be flipped if Trump’s vote is to be flipped. The beneficiaries of those votes before a re-evaluation won’t be happy.
Was Trump always so confused in his statements, or is this a new thing? His contests against Obama, or naming Orban President of Turkey are a little worrying, as are his statements about liking Hannibal Lecter.
No, it won't matter that Powell et al are admitting that they spouted lies. The question of whether Trump actually won or not is ultimately irrelevant to them. Declaring that Trump's victory was stolen is really a way to declare that it isn't legitimate for Biden and Democrats to govern. "Trump is a winner; Trump is our leader; it's unacceptable that "they" took away his office."
I also agree Trump's cognitive capacity has eroded badly.
I think it would be fairly easy to confuse Orban with Erdogan. Orban is just following down the political trail that Erdogan blazed. Trump, no doubt, aspires to follow them down that trail.
The Gaetzes of the GOP aren't extreme rightwingers so much as they are nihilists who can live with anarchy if it brings them power. I see little evidence that they believe much of anything they say. Trump certainly doesn't. They and Trump only care about who they can stick it to, whose resentments they can stoke to keep themselves in the spotlight. They have no concern or respect for the institutions they inhabit. Nor do they care much about rules, law, and tradition except in figuring out how they can bend them to satisfy their desires. Matches at the ready, they're prepared to burn the whole country down.
Self-immolation is the likely outcome for the so-called Republican party. 2024 voters will favor centrist governance, not unmanageable chaos. Our independent judiciary is fully capable is deciding that Trump conspired to undermine the 2020 elections. Matt Gaetz is for the moment simply new Jim Jordan, who was something like the new David Duke.
I recall reasonable-sounding research results that indicate that chaos and fearful uncertainty tend to strengthen conservative views, I think it was limned as 'the Right-wing Zombie Apocalypse'…so there's an incentive structure there.
Well written. Another good argument for why political rhetoric matters - someone might come after you and believe it. (If Democrats are evil commies trying to ruin the country then then why the hell are you, Republican congressman, agreeing to any deal with those monsters?)
I never saw an analysis of why the Democrats didn't add their support to Tom Emmer, who was obviously the best candidate they could realistically hope for. McCarthy asked for their support; would Emmer not have accepted it? More critically, having a bipartisan vote would have set a new precedent that, yes, would have likely resulted in some Republicans getting primaried, but would have been highly beneficial to the moderates who make up the significant majority of the Democratic Party and could have been a real first step toward fixing the political problems for the country as a whole. My feeling is that Democrats are (almost) as locked into blind partisanship as Republicans, which is incredibly frustrating, as I am one of those who genuinely believes democracy is at risk.
Emmer went down because the right-most members, plus Trump, thought he was too moderate. If the Dems had swung over to him to get him appointed Speaker, the GOP would have turned on 10x as hard, with far more people refusing to support him -- because it would have made him look like a Dem plant. So I don't think this would have worked. With the margin so very close and the hard right members (with "hard right" defined as radical on tactics as well as ideology, as I do in the post) unwilling to share any power or compromise with Dems, a moderate can't win. Put differently: The moderates will go along with a radical, but that radicals won't go along with a moderate.
Thanks for replying. But if McCarthy was asking for Democratic votes, that is a clear indication that a combination of moderated Dems and Rs could have worked. What is the difference between Emmer and McCarthy that changes the calculus?
Linker's answer is good. The old standby applies as well: “Never interfere with an enemy while he's in the process of destroying himself” - Napoleon Bonaparte
You are describing my exact frustration. That the Dems saw it as the enemy destroying itself. The problem is that the enemy is part of the same government and country that they are in. We're all going to be hurt over this and perhaps the Democrats could have prevented that by supporting Emmer. I wonder how many people are capable of thinking in these terms--that is, that the other party is "the enemy" with the concept of a common good completely lost.
I understand your concern. It remains the case that Republicans are on a path to either self-destruction or authoritarian rule. Democrats supporting Emmer would save neither Republicans nor the Republic. For the reasons Linker gives it wouldn't have worked anyway. Any sign of Democratic support and Republicans flee en masse.
There is a scenario where Democrats make a power-sharing deal with a Republican who can pull over a few Republican votes, but it needs a way bigger crisis like a protracted government shutdown. These Republicans would be seen as traitors and HATED by Republicans at large, they'd reasonably fear for their safety, so things need to get truly desperate. See John Quiggin's comment above.
The GOP today is officially the party of power to reward friends and harm all others at whim; It has no other platform or philosophy.
If we believe the Senate, its most revered SCOTUS Justice has been practicing this politic for decades.
If we pay attention to State legislatures, wherever Republicans have a veto-proof majority they use it to enshrine the permanence of their minority rule to ignore voters and reward themselves and their donors.
Trump is America's Berlusconi, the GOP has become America's Forza Italia, but America's is not a parliamentary system and so it remains to be seen if their attempt to give themselves permanent governing/plundering status can be sustained.
> […] because if they don’t say it, Trump might turn on them and
> encourage a primary challenge from further to their right.
…and the very real fear that a lone Trump supporter, a group of them, will kill them or their family.
Government is _not_ a violence-monopoly: it is both a provider of violence and a legitimiser of violence, which can be beneficial (not punishing legitimate self-defence) or not (not punishing lynch-mobs). Seen in that light, Mr Trump _is_ to some and to some extent the government.
Yes. The Republican Party is officially post-democracy.
The coming shutdown will be The Big One, I think. Biden can't afford to back down, and even if he wanted to, there is no deal he can offer that Johnson could accept without losing his job. On the other side, capitulation would be catastrophic for MAGA Republicans. The most likely resolution is the desertion of the required handful of moderate (or rather, moderately extreme) Republicans, but that will only happen after the catastrophic effects of the shutdown have already become reality.
I’m concerned this is exactly what will happen.
A Republican House captured by Gaetz seems unstable, and so does the Republican Party captured by Trump.
If your scenario plays out it breaks the back of Trump's hold on the Republican House, I have to think it would affect the election, maybe a lot.
We deserve what we get in this shit hole country. Maybe a shut down will keep us from finding the rabid genocidal Israelis
Best single analysis of the situation we face that I have read so far.
Thanks so much, Alan! That means a lot.
Will it make any difference that the MAGA folk rely on the statements of Sidney Powell and others who have now declared that they were spouting lies? I would also like to revisit the down ballot election results which should be flipped if Trump’s vote is to be flipped. The beneficiaries of those votes before a re-evaluation won’t be happy.
Was Trump always so confused in his statements, or is this a new thing? His contests against Obama, or naming Orban President of Turkey are a little worrying, as are his statements about liking Hannibal Lecter.
No, it won't matter that Powell et al are admitting that they spouted lies. The question of whether Trump actually won or not is ultimately irrelevant to them. Declaring that Trump's victory was stolen is really a way to declare that it isn't legitimate for Biden and Democrats to govern. "Trump is a winner; Trump is our leader; it's unacceptable that "they" took away his office."
I also agree Trump's cognitive capacity has eroded badly.
I think it would be fairly easy to confuse Orban with Erdogan. Orban is just following down the political trail that Erdogan blazed. Trump, no doubt, aspires to follow them down that trail.
The Gaetzes of the GOP aren't extreme rightwingers so much as they are nihilists who can live with anarchy if it brings them power. I see little evidence that they believe much of anything they say. Trump certainly doesn't. They and Trump only care about who they can stick it to, whose resentments they can stoke to keep themselves in the spotlight. They have no concern or respect for the institutions they inhabit. Nor do they care much about rules, law, and tradition except in figuring out how they can bend them to satisfy their desires. Matches at the ready, they're prepared to burn the whole country down.
Self-immolation is the likely outcome for the so-called Republican party. 2024 voters will favor centrist governance, not unmanageable chaos. Our independent judiciary is fully capable is deciding that Trump conspired to undermine the 2020 elections. Matt Gaetz is for the moment simply new Jim Jordan, who was something like the new David Duke.
I recall reasonable-sounding research results that indicate that chaos and fearful uncertainty tend to strengthen conservative views, I think it was limned as 'the Right-wing Zombie Apocalypse'…so there's an incentive structure there.
Well written. Another good argument for why political rhetoric matters - someone might come after you and believe it. (If Democrats are evil commies trying to ruin the country then then why the hell are you, Republican congressman, agreeing to any deal with those monsters?)
Isn’t driving into ditches itself the agenda?
I never saw an analysis of why the Democrats didn't add their support to Tom Emmer, who was obviously the best candidate they could realistically hope for. McCarthy asked for their support; would Emmer not have accepted it? More critically, having a bipartisan vote would have set a new precedent that, yes, would have likely resulted in some Republicans getting primaried, but would have been highly beneficial to the moderates who make up the significant majority of the Democratic Party and could have been a real first step toward fixing the political problems for the country as a whole. My feeling is that Democrats are (almost) as locked into blind partisanship as Republicans, which is incredibly frustrating, as I am one of those who genuinely believes democracy is at risk.
Emmer went down because the right-most members, plus Trump, thought he was too moderate. If the Dems had swung over to him to get him appointed Speaker, the GOP would have turned on 10x as hard, with far more people refusing to support him -- because it would have made him look like a Dem plant. So I don't think this would have worked. With the margin so very close and the hard right members (with "hard right" defined as radical on tactics as well as ideology, as I do in the post) unwilling to share any power or compromise with Dems, a moderate can't win. Put differently: The moderates will go along with a radical, but that radicals won't go along with a moderate.
Thanks for replying. But if McCarthy was asking for Democratic votes, that is a clear indication that a combination of moderated Dems and Rs could have worked. What is the difference between Emmer and McCarthy that changes the calculus?
Exactly. The Dems share the blame for without their doing with the Gaetz Gestapo wing McCarthy would still be speaker.
Linker's answer is good. The old standby applies as well: “Never interfere with an enemy while he's in the process of destroying himself” - Napoleon Bonaparte
You are describing my exact frustration. That the Dems saw it as the enemy destroying itself. The problem is that the enemy is part of the same government and country that they are in. We're all going to be hurt over this and perhaps the Democrats could have prevented that by supporting Emmer. I wonder how many people are capable of thinking in these terms--that is, that the other party is "the enemy" with the concept of a common good completely lost.
I understand your concern. It remains the case that Republicans are on a path to either self-destruction or authoritarian rule. Democrats supporting Emmer would save neither Republicans nor the Republic. For the reasons Linker gives it wouldn't have worked anyway. Any sign of Democratic support and Republicans flee en masse.
There is a scenario where Democrats make a power-sharing deal with a Republican who can pull over a few Republican votes, but it needs a way bigger crisis like a protracted government shutdown. These Republicans would be seen as traitors and HATED by Republicans at large, they'd reasonably fear for their safety, so things need to get truly desperate. See John Quiggin's comment above.
Let's not forget that Emmer was ousted by their secret ballot before it even got to the point where Dems could vote him up or down.
Actually moderate democrats taking the party to the center would save the Republic. Because sure as shhotin' T. Rump will take us down.
The GOP today is officially the party of power to reward friends and harm all others at whim; It has no other platform or philosophy.
If we believe the Senate, its most revered SCOTUS Justice has been practicing this politic for decades.
If we pay attention to State legislatures, wherever Republicans have a veto-proof majority they use it to enshrine the permanence of their minority rule to ignore voters and reward themselves and their donors.
Trump is America's Berlusconi, the GOP has become America's Forza Italia, but America's is not a parliamentary system and so it remains to be seen if their attempt to give themselves permanent governing/plundering status can be sustained.
> […] because if they don’t say it, Trump might turn on them and
> encourage a primary challenge from further to their right.
…and the very real fear that a lone Trump supporter, a group of them, will kill them or their family.
Government is _not_ a violence-monopoly: it is both a provider of violence and a legitimiser of violence, which can be beneficial (not punishing legitimate self-defence) or not (not punishing lynch-mobs). Seen in that light, Mr Trump _is_ to some and to some extent the government.